This study presents the implementation of a short-term forecasting system for price movements in exchange markets, using market depth data and a systematic procedure to enable a fully automated trading system. The case study focuses on the UK to Win Horse Racing market during the pre-live stage on the world's leading betting exchange, Betfair. Innovative convolutional attention mechanisms are introduced and applied to multiple recurrent neural networks and bi-dimensional convolutional recurrent neural network layers. Additionally, a novel padding method for convolutional layers is proposed, specifically designed for multivariate time series processing. These innovations are thoroughly detailed, along with their execution process. The proposed architectures follow a standard supervised learning approach, involving model training and subsequent testing on new data, which requires extensive pre-processing and data analysis. The study also presents a complete end-to-end framework for automated feature engineering and market interactions using the developed models in production. The key finding of this research is that all proposed innovations positively impact the performance metrics of the classification task under examination, thereby advancing the current state-of-the-art in convolutional attention mechanisms and padding methods applied to multivariate time series problems.

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Things to Do in L.A. Tap to enable a layout that focuses on the article. One of L.A.'s most popular hiking spots is getting bathrooms. This is read by an automated voice. Please report any issues or inconsistencies here . The $1-million project will draw odors, foot traffic, homeless people and other problems, opponents say.

Strategic randomization is a key principle in game theory, yet it remains underexplored in large language models (LLMs). Prior work often conflates the cognitive decision to randomize with the mechanical generation of randomness, leading to incomplete evaluations. To address this, we propose a novel zero-sum game inspired by the Tian Ji Horse Race, where the Nash equilibrium corresponds to a maximal entropy strategy. The game's complexity masks this property from untrained humans and underdeveloped LLMs. We evaluate five LLMs across prompt styles -- framed, neutral, and hinted -- using competitive multi-tournament gameplay with system-provided random choices, isolating the decision to randomize. Results show that weaker models remain deterministic regardless of prompts, while stronger models exhibit increased randomization under explicit hints. When facing weaker models, strong LLMs adopt deterministic strategies to exploit biases, but converge toward equilibrium play when facing peers. Through win/loss outcomes and Bayes factor analysis, we demonstrate meaningful variation in LLMs' strategic reasoning capabilities, highlighting opportunities for improvement in abstract reasoning and adaptive learning. We make our implementation publicly available at https://github.com/ocelopus/llm-when-to-throw-coin to ensure full reproducibility.

Effective generalization in language models depends critically on the diversity of their training data. Yet existing diversity metrics often fall short of this goal, relying on surface-level heuristics that are decoupled from model behavior. This motivates us to ask: What kind of diversity in training data actually drives generalization in language models -- and how can we measure and amplify it? Through large-scale empirical analyses spanning over 300 training runs, carefully controlled for data scale and quality, we show that data diversity can be a strong predictor of generalization in LLM reasoning -- as measured by average model performance on unseen out-of-distribution benchmarks. We introduce G-Vendi, a metric that quantifies diversity via the entropy of model-induced gradients. Despite using a small off-the-shelf proxy model for gradients, G-Vendi consistently outperforms alternative measures, achieving strong correlation (Spearman's $ρ\approx 0.9$) with out-of-distribution (OOD) performance on both natural language inference (NLI) and math reasoning tasks. Building on this insight, we present Prismatic Synthesis, a framework for generating diverse synthetic data by targeting underrepresented regions in gradient space. Experimental results show that Prismatic Synthesis consistently improves model performance as we scale synthetic data -- not just on in-distribution test but across unseen, out-of-distribution benchmarks -- significantly outperforming state-of-the-art models that rely on 20 times larger data generator than ours. For example, PrismMath-7B, our model distilled from a 32B LLM, outperforms R1-Distill-Qwen-7B -- the same base model trained on proprietary data generated by 671B R1 -- on 6 out of 7 challenging benchmarks.

The widespread application of autonomous driving technology has significantly advanced the field of autonomous racing. Model Predictive Contouring Control (MPCC) is a highly effective local trajectory planning method for autonomous racing. However, the traditional MPCC method struggles with racetracks that have significant curvature changes, limiting the performance of the vehicle during autonomous racing. To address this issue, we propose a curvature-integrated MPCC (CiMPCC) local trajectory planning method for autonomous racing. This method optimizes the velocity of the local trajectory based on the curvature of the racetrack centerline. The specific implementation involves mapping the curvature of the racetrack centerline to a reference velocity profile, which is then incorporated into the cost function for optimizing the velocity of the local trajectory. This reference velocity profile is created by normalizing and mapping the curvature of the racetrack centerline, thereby ensuring efficient and performance-oriented local trajectory planning in racetracks with significant curvature. The proposed CiMPCC method has been experimented on a self-built 1:10 scale F1TENTH racing vehicle deployed with ROS platform. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves outstanding results on a challenging racetrack with sharp curvature, improving the overall lap time by 11.4%-12.5% compared to other autonomous racing trajectory planning methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/zhouhengli/CiMPCC.

With the rise of large-scale language models (LLMs), it is currently popular and effective to convert multimodal information into text descriptions for multimodal multi-hop question answering. However, we argue that the current methods of multi-modal multi-hop question answering still mainly face two challenges: 1) The retrieved evidence containing a large amount of redundant information, inevitably leads to a significant drop in performance due to irrelevant information misleading the prediction. 2) The reasoning process without interpretable reasoning steps makes the model difficult to discover the logical errors for handling complex questions. To solve these problems, we propose a unified LLMs-based approach but without heavily relying on them due to the LLM's potential errors, and innovatively treat multimodal multi-hop question answering as a joint entailment tree generation and question answering problem. Specifically, we design a multi-task learning framework with a focus on facilitating common knowledge sharing across interpretability and prediction tasks while preventing task-specific errors from interfering with each other via mixture of experts. Afterward, we design an iterative feedback mechanism to further enhance both tasks by feeding back the results of the joint training to the LLM for regenerating entailment trees, aiming to iteratively refine the potential answer. Notably, our method has won the first place in the official leaderboard of WebQA (since April 10, 2024), and achieves competitive results on MultimodalQA.

Document visual question answering (DocVQA) pipelines that answer questions from documents have broad applications. Existing methods focus on handling single-page documents with multi-modal language models (MLMs), or rely on text-based retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) that uses text extraction tools such as optical character recognition (OCR). However, there are difficulties in applying these methods in real-world scenarios: (a) questions often require information across different pages or documents, where MLMs cannot handle many long documents; (b) documents often have important information in visual elements such as figures, but text extraction tools ignore them. We introduce M3DocRAG, a novel multi-modal RAG framework that flexibly accommodates various document contexts (closed-domain and open-domain), question hops (single-hop and multi-hop), and evidence modalities (text, chart, figure, etc.). M3DocRAG finds relevant documents and answers questions using a multi-modal retriever and an MLM, so that it can efficiently handle single or many documents while preserving visual information. Since previous DocVQA datasets ask questions in the context of a specific document, we also present M3DocVQA, a new benchmark for evaluating open-domain DocVQA over 3,000+ PDF documents with 40,000+ pages. In three benchmarks (M3DocVQA/MMLongBench-Doc/MP-DocVQA), empirical results show that M3DocRAG with ColPali and Qwen2-VL 7B achieves superior performance than many strong baselines, including state-of-the-art performance in MP-DocVQA. We provide comprehensive analyses of different indexing, MLMs, and retrieval models. Lastly, we qualitatively show that M3DocRAG can successfully handle various scenarios, such as when relevant information exists across multiple pages and when answer evidence only exists in images.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human expectations requires high-quality instructional dialogues, which can be achieved by raising diverse, in-depth, and insightful instructions that deepen interactions. Existing methods target instructions from real instruction dialogues as a learning goal and fine-tune a user simulator for posing instructions. However, the user simulator struggles to implicitly model complex dialogue flows and pose high-quality instructions. In this paper, we take inspiration from the cognitive abilities inherent in human learning and propose the explicit modeling of complex dialogue flows through instructional strategy reuse. Specifically, we first induce high-level strategies from various real instruction dialogues. These strategies are applied to new dialogue scenarios deductively, where the instructional strategies facilitate high-quality instructions. Experimental results show that our method can generate diverse, in-depth, and insightful instructions for a given dialogue history. The constructed multi-turn instructional dialogues can outperform competitive baselines on the downstream chat model.

We present a novel method for learning densities with bounded support which enables us to incorporate'hard' topological constraints. In particular, we show how emerging techniques from computational algebraic topology and the notion of persistent homology can be combined with kernel-based methods from machine learning for the purpose of density estimation. The proposed formalism facilitates learning of models with bounded support in a principled way, and - by incorporating persistent homology techniques in our approach - we are able to encode algebraic-topological constraints which are not addressed in current state of the art probabilistic models. We study the behaviour of our method on two synthetic examples for various sample sizes and exemplify the benefits of the proposed approach on a real-world dataset by learning a motion model for a race car. We show how to learn a model which respects the underlying topological structure of the racetrack, constraining the trajectories of the car.